Description of the opportunity and risk situation

Each consolidated risk analysis is based on a 4x4 matrix with regard to loss potential and probability of occurrence. Based on the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, a risk classification (low, medium, high) is derived for each consolidated risk:

Risk matrix

The stable portfolio of consolidated risks introduced in financial year 2021/22 contains a total of 16 risks. All risks are listed in the following overview:

With the introduction of the stable portfolio of consolidated risks, ‘Strategic risks’ (#1) and ‘Store operations and FSD risks’ (#6) were added for the first time. Among other risks, they include items that were previously included in ‘Risks related to Covid-19’ and ‘Challenged business model’. The risk ‘Legal and compliance risks’ (#16) was renamed and now includes the former risk ‘Increasing trade regulations’ in addition to general legal risks. Due to their loss potential and/or probability of occurrence, the risks ‘Security risks’ (#4), ‘Supply chain risks’ (#10), ‘Data risks’ (#13) and ‘Human resources risks’ (#14) were classified as low in the reporting period, just like in the previous year. Accordingly, for the sake of completeness, they are presented for the first time in connection with the stable risk portfolio in the annual report 2021/22. The changes in risks are presented in the net consideration in the half-year financial report 2021/22.

As can be seen in the table, 2 of the 16 consolidated risks in the reporting period were classified as high, 6 risks as medium and 8 risks as low. In the following, we go into detail about the opportunities and risks. We focus on those risks that are classified as high and medium.

Environment

Opportunities from a global and diversified business model

METRO’s diversified country portfolio, which excludes excessive individual dependencies on specific countries, offers a competitive edge in the current economic situation compared to other, locally positioned market participants. The global positioning also allows METRO to react flexibly to changes in global supply chains, for example through the use of regional trading offices.

Likewise, the diversified multichannel business model is optimally positioned in the competitive context to meet customer demand. The increased cost-consciousness of customers is contrasted by the own-brand and price strategy for the store-based business. With regard to personnel shortages in the hospitality industry, our digital solutions and pre-processed products help to at least partially bridge the staffing gap.

Strategic risks (#1)

Strategic risks include risks related to the group’s business model, competitiveness and digitalisation. Due to the progressing implementation of digital solutions for our multichannel approach (for example M-Shop), the risk in terms of loss potential has decreased from major (> €100–300 million) to moderate (> €50–100 million). Consequently, in combination with the low probability of occurrence (≥ 10–25%), it is classified as low overall.

Opportunities from the development of business and political conditions

An improvement in the economic and political environment worldwide or in countries where METRO is present, as well as improvements in free trade, could have a positive impact on sales, costs and earnings. METRO operates in a large number of countries where we could potentially benefit from these developments. Opportunities could arise from a sustained positive geopolitical and macroeconomic development, for example in the form of a recovery of foreign exchange rates.

Macroeconomic and political risks (#2)

As a company with global operations, METRO depends on the political and economic situations in the countries in which the group operates. The fundamental business environment can change rapidly. Changes in political leadership, civil unrest, terrorist attacks or economic imbalances can jeopardise METRO’s business. Above all, the war in Ukraine affects the safety of employees and customers as well as the integrity of the business and supply chains. With regard to the business in Russia, risks arise from sanctions, counter-sanctions and government intervention in business operations to the point of potential expropriation as a result of the development of the war. The effects of the war are driving inflation and the associated loss of purchasing power among the population. Compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22, the probability of occurrence for this risk has decreased from ‘probable’ (> 50%) to ‘possible’ (> 25–50%). This is attributable to the sustained ability to continue business in Ukraine as well as the adaptation of operational processes to the imposed sanctions in Europe.

Furthermore, the current fragmentation of the European single market due to various trade regulations in the member states leads to the disruption of trade flows, which exerts a direct impact on METRO activities within Europe.

Continuous monitoring of the economic and political developments and a review of our strategic objectives allow us to respond to these challenges in a timely and appropriate fashion.

• For more information about our assessment of the development of the economic environment, see chapter 4 report on events after the closing date and outlook.

Interruption of business activities (#3)

The impact of the cyberattack in October 2022 is described under ‘events after the reporting period’ in the report on events after the closing date and is not part of this risk outlook as the risk has already materialised. The risk assessment for potential future interruptions of business activities due to cyberattacks or other triggers such as natural disasters or pandemics is described below.

Our business may be affected or interrupted by natural disasters or pandemics. Moreover, METRO may also be subject to cyberattacks in the future. Depending on the severity of the attack, this may lead to the temporary failure of information technology systems. Important business processes such as purchasing, marketing, sales and communication between departments rely on IT systems and may therefore be impaired. IT systems for online retailing must be continuously available, as these systems are a prerequisite for unlimited access outside normal store opening times. In addition to the failure of IT systems due to a potential loss of data or the use of stolen data by unauthorised persons, cyberattacks can also lead to reputational risks. Due to the increasing number of cyberattacks, the probability of occurrence for this risk has increased from ‘unlikely’ (< 10%) to ‘probable’ (> 50%). With regard to the increased probability, the possible risk scenario is assessed as ‘moderate’ (> €50–100 million) instead of ‘major’ (> €100–300 million) in terms of the loss potential.

Following the cyberattack, further measures were taken to restore IT systems swiftly and to safeguard against cyberattacks in general. The overriding goal of upgrading IT security measures is to ensure operational reliability at all times.

A professional crisis management allows for a rapid crisis response and thereby ensures the protection of our employees and customers. This includes communication and evacuation plans, training measures and specific instructions. We insure ourselves against the loss of tangible assets and any impending loss of sales or profits resultant from business interruptions wherever it is possible and reasonable.

Security risks (#4)

Security risks include criminal activities, terror and unrest, as well as the issue of operational safety or danger to life and limb due to lacking or inadequate security measures. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, the overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period. The impact of the war in Ukraine is discussed under risk #2 ‘Macroeconomic and political risks’.

Corporate responsibility

Opportunities from sustainable business practices

Our company is more exposed than ever to economic, environmental, social and cultural challenges. Similarly, we experience that sustainability is the key to transforming these challenges into opportunities. METRO operates an active sustainability management system in order to enshrine sustainability systematically and organisationally in its core business. Our greatest leverage lies in expanding our sustainable product range and applying responsible supply chain management. For example, we are helping to meet the demand for healthy and conscious nutrition with redesigned products containing less salt and sugar as well as organic products, alternatives to animal proteins and locally sourced products. With our contribution to ensuring environmental and social standards in our supply chain, we strengthen the resilience of our supply relationships and simultaneously reinforce local structures. These developments have become even more pronounced in the reporting period through the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our stakeholders evaluate the sustainability efforts implemented by us, for example through ratings.

Environmental and social risks (#5)

Regulatory and social regulations and requirements regarding compliance with human rights and environmental due diligence are becoming more specific and stringent. In Germany, for example, the Act on Corporate Due Diligence Obligations in Supply Chains (Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz) will enter into force in January 2023; and a European counterpart has already been drafted. The requirements apply to the company’s own business operations as well as to the supply chain. Non-compliance of these regulations can lead to potential fines, legal consequences and reputational damage.

Bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials and energy as well as interruptions in the supply chains make it difficult to achieve our environmental and climate goals. At the same time, our operational business generates greenhouse gas emissions and consumes resources that can have a negative impact on the environment. It could also become more difficult for our suppliers to meet their commitments, such as emission reduction targets. As the likelihood of non-compliance with social and environmental aspects in the supply chain increases, so do the risks of violating national and, prospectively, European supply chain due diligence requirements, which could eventually result in fines for METRO. Besides reputational damage, failure to meet social and environmental targets could ultimately restrict access to sustainability-related financing instruments and have a negative impact on the stability of the supply chain. For these reasons, the risk in terms of loss potential has increased from ‘minor’ (≤ €50 million) to ‘major’ (> €100–300 million) compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22. However, due to intensified control measures, the probability of occurrence of this risk is now assessed as ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) instead of ‘probable’ (> 50%). These control measures include a large number of energy-saving measures and refrigerant replacement initiatives in the national subsidiaries through budget prioritisation, as well as the establishment of a specific implementation concept for compliance with the Act on Corporate Due Diligence Obligations in Supply Chains, which will enter into force in Germany in January 2023.

Further risks result from internationally increasing regulations on traceability and transparency in the supply chain; again, non-compliance with these regulations may lead to potential fines or a ban on the sale of the goods in question. METRO has taken comprehensive measures to counteract the risks. For example, METRO established an appropriate social standards programme and traceability concept, introduced energy efficiency and awareness-raising measures to reduce emissions and increased the corporate budget for country initiatives to implement new environmentally friendly technologies.

• For more information about our social responsibility and environmental protection activities, see chapter 2 principles of the group – 2.3 combined non-financial statement of METRO AG.

Wholesale business

Opportunities from digitalisation and innovation

METRO is focused on identifying and addressing current and future challenges of its customers at an early stage in a constantly changing environment. In this case, innovations and digitalisation are areas with excellent potential for realising increases in value. We are convinced that the consistent implementation of innovative ideas relating to the progressing digitalisation will increasingly shape the future of the retail and wholesale industry. This may give rise to new business models, which in turn may present a variety of opportunities.

As part of our sCore strategy, we have defined a clear digitalisation ambition as one of the core strategic ambitions in the form of a 40% digital sales share. In order to exploit the opportunities derived from digitalisation and to realise synergies, we are bundling our corresponding initiatives with the business units Hospitality Digital and METRO DIGITAL. The focus on the core customer groups HoReCa and Traders is a key component of our digitalisation strategy, which we use to provide our customers with digital solutions such as the DISH (Digital Innovations and Solutions for Hospitality) platform. With Hospitality Digital, we see significant opportunities to benefit from faster digitalisation in the HoReCa and Traders sectors as well as in other business areas. The Covid-19 pandemic motivated our customers to accelerate their digitalisation efforts. With our METRO DIGITAL business unit, we continue to digitalise our core business. METRO DIGITAL develops, optimises and supports all digital solutions used by our customers, such as our apps METRO Companion or M-Shop. METRO DIGITAL is also developing internal digital solutions, for example to improve the efficiency of our logistics processes. These digital solutions provide opportunities for METRO to set itself apart from the competition.

Opportunities from customer focus

METRO is clearly streamlined towards wholesale and B2B customers, with customer focus and satisfaction being key elements of the strategy. In order to continuously measure and consistently improve customer satisfaction, we have implemented the Net Promoter Score across the board in 22 countries in which METRO is represented with wholesale stores. Besides the purely quantitative measurement of the current satisfaction values, suggestions from customers can be systematically recorded and evaluated. This will allow further potential for improving the shopping experience and supply as well as general consumer trends to be identified. In line with our multichannel strategy, we are expanding our delivery sales and strengthening our online activities. Our goal is to become the partner of choice for our customers by offering METRO solutions that cover all aspects of their business. We are also intensifying our competitive analyses. Our various strategic projects aim at further improving our purchasing and sales processes and at creating additional value for our customers. The goal is to ensure the ongoing value of assets, thereby mastering the challenges faced by our business model. As a wholesale specialist, we want to further increase our customer focus, accelerate our growth, simplify our structures and increase the implementation speed. We are thus striving to increase our overall operating performance.

Store operations and FSD risks (#6)

The markets in which we operate are characterised by rapid changes and fierce competition. Lack of collection, analysis and use of customer data, uncompetitive pricing or missing trends in terms of assortment or new sales formats and channels may cause us to fail to meet customer needs and thus jeopardise our growth and profitability targets.

In addition, the shortage of skilled workers in the hospitality industry is leading to shorter opening hours or even complete closure of establishments in our core customer groups. Furthermore, inadequate market and FSD processes can lead to inefficiencies which have a particularly negative impact on inventory levels and profit margins. Initial positive results of the measures related to sCore (for example, expansion of the sales force and focus on own brands as well as process optimisations through the multichannel fulfilment centre) lead to a reduction of the risk in terms of probability of occurrence from ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) to ‘low’ (≥ 10–25%) compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22. Moreover, we are actively counteracting these risks in various ways. For one thing, we are developing country-specific strategic plans. Derived from the sCore group strategy, these are geared to local conditions and customer needs and are supported and monitored in their implementation by our Executive Vice Presidents.

To address the needs of professional customers, we are expanding our business model from transactional sales of goods to a holistic partnership. This includes the expansion of our delivery business, further development of our franchise concept in selected markets, the METRO MARKETS platform business and digitalisation initiatives for our customers on dish.co as well as financial services under METRO Financial Services.

Real estate

Opportunities from increase in value

As of 30 September 2022, the store network comprised 661 stores, 567 of which were out-of-store (OOS) locations and 64 were depots. Around half of the locations are owned. We see potential for value increases in possible development projects for our existing real estate assets as well as in improved facility management.

Real estate risks (#7)

Compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22, the risk in terms of loss potential has increased from ‘minor’ (≤ €50 million) to ‘major’ (> €100–300 million). This is due to the strong market price increases for electricity and gas as a result of the war in Ukraine, which will lead to a massive rise in energy costs in the coming financial years. Additionally, a gas supply interruption in the event of a possible gas shortage may restrict operations in our stores. Extensive energy efficiency measures are planned in order to decrease consumption and the associated costs. Loss of rental income caused by insolvencies of third-party tenants or statutory regulations in the course of pandemics as well as vacancies due to unused space and rising interest rates carry the risk of an impairment of owned locations or right-of-use assets at rental locations. Moreover, delayed repair and maintenance work could lead to legal infringements and real estate impairments as well as reputational damage. We mitigate these risks with strategic and operational real estate management. To this end, we regularly evaluate properties in terms of value and income and perform projected investment planning. The safety and health of customers, suppliers and employees could be endangered by deficiencies in the properties. We take decisive action to prevent potential accidents and damage to health, thus ensuring a safe and healthy environment. In addition, we conduct risk assessments and specify clear sets of rules and procedures. We support implementation through frequent training, internal controls such as regularly scheduled safety and occupational safety inspections as well as external controls such as stability inspections.

Suppliers and products

Opportunities from responsible trading

Not only for us, but also for more and more customers, the environmental and social sustainability of the products we offer and their production process play an increasingly important role, in addition to quality and safety. We aim to ensure resource-friendly production as well as socially acceptable working conditions within our procurement channels. For this purpose, METRO adopted a group-wide purchasing policy for a sustainable supply chain and procurement management that applies to all products and includes additional requirements for critical raw materials.

• For more information about our social responsibility and environmental protection activities, see chapter 2 principles of the group – 2.3 combined non-financial statement of METRO AG.

Opportunities from higher own-brand penetration

Own brands are a central part of METRO’s strategy to increase the success of our customers. By offering own brands, we can provide high quality at relatively low prices, thus simultaneously increasing our customers’ profitability as well as our own. Potential economic constraints and increased price pressure on our customers, for example as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the inflation, could increase demand for own brands and thus have a positive effect on METRO’s profitability.

Procurement risks (#8)

The war in Ukraine, inflation and Covid-19 measures, especially in Asia, are disrupting the supply chain and are causing a spike in energy prices as well as a shortage of raw materials, which in turn lead to production downtimes and thus sales losses due to the unavailability of goods. The risk has increased from ‘moderate’ (> €50–100 million) to ‘major’ (> €100–300 million) in terms of loss potential; however, at the same time the probability of occurrence has decreased from ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) to ‘low’ (≥ 10–25%). This is attributable to the fact that we learned from previous Covid-19 waves, especially with regard to the restrictions imposed by Covid-19 measures.

In order to mitigate the risks, METRO is launching projects to promote bundled purchasing activities by the national subsidiaries and thus gain access to more beneficial prices. Furthermore, we continuously monitor and evaluate the performance of our suppliers and have access to alternative suppliers, especially for important products. When we renegotiate expiring contracts, we try to implement agreements that compel the supplier to be sufficiently prepared so that supply continuity can even be ensured in the event of force majeure. Likewise, we apply special product analyses to prepare for negotiations in an effort to curb price increase aspirations by suppliers.

Quality risks (#9)

Quality risks include the quality ensurance of the offered products as well as issues related to transport and storage, if they lead to an impairment of the quality of goods or food safety. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, the overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period.

Supply chain

Supply chain risks (#10)

Supply chain risks include issues related to logistics, transport and storage, such as transport costs or the management of logistics service providers. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, the overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period.

Financials

Financial risks (#11)

Without timely countermeasures, unexpected external influences on our business activities or other changes in the business environment could potentially result in us missing our target figures. In addition, delayed recognition of such changes could lead to us making wrong business decisions. We also mitigate risks through close interlocking of strategic planning and the budgeting process, very close monitoring of budget compliance and strong involvement of the supervisory bodies as well as effective internal controls.

The fact that our financial year differs from the calendar year allows us a high degree of planning certainty at an early stage, with the profitable Christmas quarter being the first quarter of our financial year.

The current global fight against inflation leads to an increase in key interest rates, among other things, and thus increases the risk of rising interest expenses for financing instruments; however, at the same time, it also reduces the risk for interest expenses from negative interest on demand and capital deposits with banks. Due to the already reduced gross debt and our currently comfortable liquidity situation, the risk of rising interest expenses for financing instruments is to be assessed as limited. In order to be able to react promptly to changes, we continuously monitor our own financing positions as well as the money and capital markets.

Furthermore, potential defaults by commercial partners and customers represent a financial risk. In order to minimise the credit risk of receivables from our customers, we decide on the amount of the granted payment terms based on comprehensive internal scoring – and external information, if available.  

We reduce the credit risk for external investments with banks by setting limits based on ratings and credit spreads.   

By continuously monitoring the entire receivables portfolio, we ensure a risk-adequate adjustment of our customers’ payment terms and the investment limits with banks at all times. 

Due to the implementation of a scenario analysis for the quantitative aggregation of risks, the risk has been reduced from ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) to ‘low’ (≥ 10–25%) in terms of probability of occurrence compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22.

• For more information about financial risks and their management, please see the notes to the consolidated financial statements in no. 44 – management of financial risks.

Transactions

Opportunities from increased efficiency and portfolio simplification

In the future, METRO will also focus on investments to strengthen its wholesale business and expand market shares. This focus on wholesale could lead to improved workflows along the value chain faster than expected and could have a positive effect on our business development through an increase in operating efficiency. Collaborations (even if they are purely contractual) can help us reduce operational cost or give our customers access to innovative food products.

The country portfolio is regularly reviewed with regard to the feasibility of a local market leadership and the attractiveness of the respective markets. In this context, METRO disposed of its unprofitable business in Belgium in the past financial year. Further portfolio adjustments cannot be ruled out in the future. We have successfully completed significant company disposals (MAKRO Belgium, Real, the majority stake in METRO China) in recent years and have extensive experience in this regard.

Opportunities from market consolidation and acquisitions

We want to solidify and expand our leading position in numerous markets. We expect that the consolidation of the wholesale stores in many of our portfolio countries will be intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic. Our goal here is to continue to gain market share and, where appropriate, to take over individual locations of competitors and thus actively advance market consolidation. Additional great potential for increases in value may arise from acquisitions, particularly in business segments of strategic importance. METRO’s liquidity situation is excellent with plenty of capacities for company acquisitions. We see opportunities in further expansion of our core business, mainly through acquisitions in the delivery business, as well as in reinforcing our activities in related B2B areas, for example in e-commerce and marketplace operations. METRO made various acquisitions in the past financial year, including AGM (Austria), Eijsink (Netherlands) and D. u. E. Günther group (Germany). The existing minority interests held by METRO offer the opportunity for additional increases in value if, for example, start-up companies were to develop better than expected.

Transaction risks (#12)

The transaction risks include all relevant risks arising from the acquisition and disposal of companies (or company shares). These include legal and tax risks, guarantees, non-recurring and residual costs, or even reactions from the market with regard to the transaction.

Completed transactions include the acquisition of AGM stores in Austria and the acquisition of Eijsink, a leading provider of cloud-based POS systems, as well as the sale of MAKRO Belgium. Furthermore, they continue to contain subsequent liability risks from completed sales of companies from previous years.

The demerger of the former METRO GROUP was concluded on 13 July 2017 with the initial listing of METRO AG shares on the stock exchange. The former METRO GROUP has split into a wholesale specialist (the new METRO AG) and a company focused on consumer electronics and services (CECONOMY AG, formerly METRO AG). In addition to tax implementation risks, subsequent liability risks may arise for CECONOMY AG in this context. We are continuously monitoring the financial position of CECONOMY AG.

Due to the higher transaction volume and the implementation of a scenario analysis for the quantitative aggregation of risks, the risk has increased from ‘moderate’ (> €50–100 million) to ‘major’ (> €100–300 million) in terms of the loss potential. However, in terms of probability of occurrence, the risk has been reduced from ‘probable’ (> 50%) to ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22.

IT

Data risks (#13)

Data risks include risks related to data protection and data security as well as risks related to the accuracy, completeness and availability of data to ensure successful use of the group’s own data. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, the overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period. Data risks related to cyberattacks are included in risk #3 ‘Interruption of business activities’.

Human resources

Human resources risks (#14)

Human resources risks include risks related to the organisational structure of human resources, including recruitment, retention, remuneration, deployment planning and the exit process. Beyond that, risks related to corporate culture are also considered. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, the overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period.

Tax, legal and compliance

Tax risks (#15)

Tax risks can primarily arise in relation to the assessment of financial matters by the tax authorities (including transfer price issues). Additional risks may result from differing interpretations of sales tax (VAT) regulations. Due to the implementation of a scenario analysis for the quantitative aggregation of risks, the risk has been reduced from ‘moderate’ (> €50–100 million) and ‘possible’ (> 25–50%) to ‘minor’ (≤ €50 million) and ‘low’ (≥ 10–25%) compared to the half-year financial report 2021/22. Overall, it is thus considered a low risk in the reporting period.

Legal and compliance risks (#16)

The risk includes general legal risks as well as risks related to corruption, fraud and money laundering. Based on the assessment of the loss potential and the probability of occurrence, this overall risk was classified as low in the reporting period.