Macroeconomic parameters

The global economy has lost growth momentum over the course of financial year 2021/22. The trajectory and costs of the energy crisis, which is associated with the current geopolitical tensions, are not yet fully foreseeable. This means that all forecasts on the development of economic conditions are subject to an extraordinarily high degree of uncertainty. We expect the global economy to grow weaker in financial year 2022/23 than in the previous year.

According to current forecasts, our regions and countries will develop very differently. The German economy is on the threshold of recession at the beginning of financial year 2022/23. We assume that the recession will last throughout the first half of the year and that the German economy will grow slightly again in the second half. Overall, the real gross domestic product in Germany will shrink slightly in the current financial year. A similar development is expected for the region West over the financial year; however, the economy in the region West will still grow slightly overall in the financial year. In Russia, the negative economic development should intensify financial year 2022/23 in light of existing economic sanctions. By contrast, an overall positive development is forecasted for the region East. The growth though will be significantly lower than in financial year 2021/22. The countries in the region East are expected to develop very differently: while individual economies are on the verge of a decline, comparatively high economic growth is expected for the countries in Asia. Overall, economic forecasts for the countries in the region East assume lower growth than in the previous period. The outlook is based on the assumption that there will neither be a worsening of the energy crisis bringing the rationing of gas or energy for industry and consumers, nor an expansion of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, an endemic Covid-19 trajectory is assumed.

Another significant factor influencing the economic development in financial year 2022/23 will continue to be high inflation and the struggle to mitigate it. Further interest rate hikes by central banks are likely to curb inflation, which will have a destimulating effect on economic growth due to higher credit costs. We expect inflation to peak in H1 of the financial year. In many cases, the already high purchase prices for energy sources or for production goods will only be reflected in the prices of consumer goods with a time lag. Inflation across all regions will reach, or even slightly exceed, the level of the previous year. Turkey continues to play a special role with regard to inflation. Inflation in this country remains unchanged at a very high level, despite a noticeable slowdown.

Sustained price increases are expected to lead to the fact that the real incomes of consumers in many countries of our portfolio will only increase slightly or not at all in financial year 2022/23, which will probably also have an impact on private consumption. Consumer confidence and, in particular, propensity to buy were very low at the beginning of the financial year. This is also attributable to a high level of uncertainty regarding the actual and expected costs of energy. As a counter­measure, numerous countries have launched regulatory programmes for energy and gas costs for private households and companies. Further economic stimuli have already been announced by politicians for some countries. Private consumer spending will nevertheless develop significantly weaker in financial year 2022/23 than in the previous year. However, it is expected to remain close to previous year’s level in all regions except Russia.

From experience, a slowdown in private household consumption momentum has a stronger impact on discretionary spending than on essential spending, such as food. Eating away from home ranks high in discretionary spending. Generally, households from higher income groups are disproportionately relevant for sales in the hospitality industry. Experience shows that they have less need to restrict their consumption due to inflation. Accordingly, we assume that a slowdown in consumption momentum will not impact sales in the hospitality industry as much as other discretionary spending, such as the purchase of consumer durables.

The slowing economic momentum and price increases are not only having an impact on the demand side, but also on the supply side. Higher planning uncertainties on the part of our customers require the greatest possible flexibility in procurement. With our multichannel approach, our HoReCa and Traders customers have the opportunity to select and combine the purchasing channels that suit their individual needs best. The pick-up business in our wholesale stores offers our customers the greatest possible flexibility, allowing them to adapt their purchasing behaviour to their business development. During the Covid-19 pandemic, this proved to be a distinct competitive advantage for METRO. Accordingly, we consider ourselves well positioned to successfully face the adverse economic outlook and further expand our market position.

The table below shows our GDP outlook by our regions.