The outlook is based on the assumption of stable exchange rates and no further adjustments to the portfolio. In financial year 2021/22 some adjustments to the portfolio have been made: AGM (first consolidation as of 2 May 2022) and Eijsink (first consolidation as of 31 March 2022) are included in financial year 2021/22 and 2022/23 figures. Due to the sale of the Belgian business (deconsolidation as of 15 June 2022), figures are excluded from financial year 2021/22 and 2022/23 figures. The relevant opportunities and risks that influence the outlook are explained in the opportunities and risk report. The expectations for the further macroeconomic development are explained in the chapter on macroeconomic parameters.
The Management Board expects a total sales growth of 5% to 10% (2021/22: 21.4%1) for financial year 2022/23. We expect a measurable decrease of inflation compared to the previous year. Growth will be driven by strategic customers and all channels. The segments Germany, West and East are expected to grow within the guidance range while Russia will decrease against previous year level. Sales in the segment Others will grow significantly above the guidance range as METRO MARKETS and Hospitality Digital products will be rolled out further.
The Management Board further expects adjusted EBITDA to decline by €75–225 million compared to financial year 2021/22 (2021/22: +€204 million to €1,394291 million). The sales growth from sCore generally leads to EBITDA growth. In financial year 2022/23, however, this is countered by measurable cost inflation and impacts from the cyberattack, hence leading to the expected decline on group level. In the segment West, adjusted EBITDA will grow moderately. The segments Germany and East are expected roughly on previous year level and Russia will decrease strongly. The segment Others will also decline strongly due to the expiration of post transaction effects (mainly China and Real) and further investments in digitalization.
1 Exchange rate-adjusted, without Japan and Myanmar, but with Aviludo and Pro a Pro Spain. Belgium up to and including May 2022. The portfolio-adjusted sales growth excluding Belgium for financial year 2021/22 as the basis for the outlook is 22.6% (absolute sales 2022: €29.3 billion), adjusted EBITDA: €1,391 million).