Comparison of outlook with actual business developments
Due to the volatile course of the Covid-19 pandemic and government restrictions, the outlook issued on 14 December 2020 was revised during the financial year on 20 April 2021. This was due to the continuous extension and high volatility of regulatory measures related to the Covid-19 pandemic at that time. With restrictions continuously easing and the resulting business development exceeding expectations, this outlook was increased again on 27 July 2021. Dedicated operational measures to support the re-start of our customers resulted in continuous market share gains. The subsequent comparison of the actual business development with the outlook for financial year 2020/21 refers to the outlook published on 27 July 2021.
For financial year 2020/21, METRO’s outlook on 27 July 2021 projected a decline in total sales and like-for-like sales of −0.5% to −3.5% compared to the previous year and a development in EBITDA excluding earnings contributions from real estate transactions and transformation costs of €+50 million to €−75 million compared to the previous year. The outlook was based on the assumption of stable exchange rates and no further adjustments to the portfolio (this means: with Japan and Myanmar, without Davigel Spain and Aviludo). The lower end of the outlook range took into account a potential partial return to restrictions due to the unchanged high uncertainty and volatility regarding the further development of the pandemic.
For the financial year, the impact of government restrictions on sales and earnings remained highest in regions with a high share of hospitality customers, such as in the Western Europe segment (excl. Germany). In terms of sales, a positive development was expected in the Russia, Eastern Europe (excl. Russia) and Asia segments. On the earnings side, a heterogeneous development in the segments was expected, with the group result being determined in particular by the further sales-dependent development in Western Europe (excl. Germany).
With a development in total sales in local currency at previous year’s level (0.0%) or −0.4% adjusted for initial consolidations1Outlook view: constant portfolio, adjusted for initial consolidation of the Aviludo Group and Davigel Spain. and like-for-like sales of −0.4%, METRO reached the upper end of the outlook (−0.5% to −3.5%). The positive development expected for Russia, Eastern Europe (excl. Russia) and Asia in terms of sales occurred as expected.
Adjusted EBITDA with Aviludo and Davigel Spain reached a total of €1,171 million in financial year 2020/21 (2019/20: €1,158 million). Without Aviludo and Davigel Spain adjusted EBITDA reached €1,164 million. Adjusted for negative currency effects of €59 million, EBITDA increased by €65 million or 5.9% (without Davigel Spain and Aviludo) compared to the previous year and thus also reached the upper end of the outlook range (€+50 million to €−75 million). On the earnings side, a heterogeneous development in the segments was expected, with the group result being determined in particular by the further sales-dependent development in Western Europe (excl. Germany). Due to the strong recovery in the second half of the year, adjusted EBITDA (without Aviludo and Davigel Spain) in Western Europe (excl. Germany) for the financial year was only €−7 million below the previous year. Adjusted for currency effects, the other segments were all above previous year’s level. In this area, Eastern Europe (excl. Russia) and in particular the segment Others were supported by positive one-time effects.
METRO achieved its adjusted sales and earnings outlook for financial year 2020/21 at the upper end of the outlook range.
1 Outlook view: constant portfolio, adjusted for initial consolidation of the Aviludo Group and Davigel Spain.