The outlook is based on the assumption of stable exchange rates and no further adjustments to the portfolio. The geopolitical situation is expected to remain unchanged. The expectations for the further macroeconomic development are explained in the chapter on macroeconomic parameters. The relevant opportunities and risks that could influence the outlook are explained in the opportunities and risk report. In the financial year 2022/23 some adjustments to the portfolio have been made: Due to the completed disposal of the Indian business in 2022/23, these figures are excluded for financial years 2022/23 and 2023/24 for the outlook. Johan i Hallen & Bergfalk as a strategic acquisition is included in the financial years.
Sales
The Management Board expects a total sales growth of 3% to 7% (2022/23: 9%, absolute sales €30.1 billion)1 for financial year 2023/24. Growth will be driven by all segments except Russia and all channels. Sales in the segment Russia is expected to be around previous year's level. The segment Germany is expected to grow below the guidance range. The segment West is expected to grow within the guidance range while the segments East and Others are expected to grow above the guidance range.
Earnings
The Management Board also expects a change in adjusted EBITDA of between €−100 million and €50 million (2022/23: €1,163 million261) compared to the financial year 2022/23. The sales growth from sCore generally leads to EBITDA growth. In financial year 2023/24, however, this is countered by noticeable cost inflation, expiration of post transaction effects (Segment Others), rising costs for cybersecurity and a further decline in the development in Russia. In the segment Others, adjusted EBITDA will strongly decline while in the segments Russia and Germany, adjusted EBITDA will decline moderatley. In the segments West and East, adjusted EBITDA will grow moderately.
1 Exchange rate-adjusted, excl. India, incl. JHB.